Britain’s economy stuck in low gear amid Brexit concerns

Jul. 26, 2017 – Britain’s economy hobbled along in the second quarter, barely recovering from a weak start to the year as industrial production and construction flagged amid uncertainties over the country’s exit from the European Union.

The economy grew by a quarterly rate of 0.3 per cent in April-June, a meagre rate that is barely above the 0.2 per cent of the first three months of the year, the Office of National Statistics said Wednesday.

Economists have been downgrading their forecasts for Britain’s economy as the country embarks on the process of leaving the European Union and negotiating new trade relations. Wednesday’s figures show that the economy, which had initially weathered well the uncertainty of the Brexit vote a year ago, is in a new, weaker phase.

“It’s the underlying trends that matter,” said Lucy O’Carroll, Aberdeen Asset Management’s chief economist. “They don’t look favourable at the moment, given the uncertainties around Brexit and the pressure on household budgets from higher inflation.”

The International Monetary Fund this week cut its forecast for British economic growth this year to 1.7 per cent from 2.0 per cent previously. Others are more pessimistic, with financial services firm PwC expecting 1.5 per cent. Ratings agencies Moody’s has also warned about prospects for the British economy.

Growth in the second quarter was driven by services, which increased by 0.5 per cent compared with 0.1 per cent in the first quarter stretching from January to March.

Retail and film production showed improvement, the ONS said. Motion pictures were the second biggest contributor from the services sector, growing by 8.2 per cent. Manufacturing swung from 0.3 per cent growth in the first quarter to a 0.5 per cent decline amid a slowdown in car production.

The results also weaken the likelihood that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates from their record lows of 0.25 per cent. Though inflation is above the 2 per cent target, it moderated in June to 2.6 per cent from a near four-year high of 2.9 per cent in May.

“The confirmation of the lacklustre performance of the economy so far this year surely also diminishes the chance of an interest rate hike any time soon, especially as growth prospects for coming months have become increasingly skewed to the downside,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, as he focused on the second quarter.